Indian Bond Market: High Time to Get Our Bonds Included in Global Indices?

Indian Bond Market: High Time to Get Our Bonds Included in Global Indices?

India’s bond market has been making significant strides toward global integration, marked by recent inclusions in major international bond indices. These developments are poised to reshape the landscape of India’s financial markets, attracting substantial foreign investment and enhancing market liquidity.

India’s Journey to Global Bond Index Inclusion

Historically, India’s government bonds were absent from prominent global bond indices, primarily due to restrictions like the 6% cap on foreign ownership. However, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) introduction of the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) in April 2020 marked a pivotal change. This initiative allowed foreign investors unrestricted access to certain government securities, signaling India’s intent to integrate more deeply into global financial markets.

The momentum continued with significant announcements:

• JP Morgan’s Inclusion: In September 2023, JP Morgan declared that Indian government bonds would be added to its Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI). This phased inclusion, starting in June 2024, will see Indian bonds reaching a weightage of 10% in the index by March 2025.

• Bloomberg’s Addition: Following suit, Bloomberg announced in March 2024 the inclusion of Indian bonds into its Emerging Market Local Currency Government indices, further validating India’s growing prominence in the global bond market.

• FTSE Russell’s Decision: In October 2024, FTSE Russell confirmed that Indian sovereign bonds would be part of its Emerging Markets Government Bond Index (EMGBI) starting from September 2025, underscoring the increasing confidence of global investors in India’s economic stability.

Implications of Global Index Inclusion

The inclusion of Indian bonds in these global indices carries several profound implications:

1. Increased Foreign Inflows: Estimates suggest that India’s entry into JP Morgan’s index could attract approximately $20 to $25 billion in foreign investment into Indian sovereign debt. Such inflows are anticipated to elevate foreign ownership of Indian government bonds from the current 2% to around 9% by 2031.

2. Enhanced Market Liquidity: A surge in foreign participation is expected to deepen the Indian bond market, reducing the illiquidity premium and, consequently, lowering borrowing costs for the government. This enhanced liquidity benefits not only government securities but also corporate debt instruments, as benchmark rates decline and access to a broader investor base becomes available.

3. Currency Stabilization: Consistent foreign investment can bolster the Indian rupee’s stability by providing a steady demand for the currency, thereby mitigating volatility arising from external shocks.

Capital Gains Tax Considerations

A critical factor influencing foreign investment in Indian bonds is the capital gains tax regime:

• Current Tax Landscape: Foreign investors are subject to capital gains tax on their investments in Indian securities. Short-term capital gains (for holdings less than 12 months) are taxed at 15%, while long-term gains are taxed at 10% beyond a threshold of ₹1 lakh.

• Potential Tax Waivers: To enhance the attractiveness of Indian bonds, there have been discussions about waiving capital gains tax for foreign investors. Such a move would align India with other countries listed on platforms like Euroclear, where capital gains tax on bond transactions is typically absent. This alignment could simplify transactions and encourage more foreign participation.

Challenges and Considerations

While the prospects are promising, several challenges need attention:

• Regulatory Harmonization: Aligning India’s regulatory framework with global standards is crucial to facilitate seamless integration and ensure investor confidence.

• Market Infrastructure: Enhancing settlement systems, improving transparency, and ensuring robust legal frameworks are essential to support increased foreign participation.

• Currency Risk: Foreign investors may be wary of currency volatility. Implementing measures to hedge currency risk effectively will be vital to attract and retain foreign investment.

Conclusion

India’s inclusion in global bond indices marks a significant milestone in its financial evolution. The anticipated benefits, including increased foreign investment, enhanced market liquidity, and reduced borrowing costs, present a compelling case for this strategic move. However, addressing challenges related to taxation, regulatory alignment, and market infrastructure will be crucial to fully realize the potential of this integration. As India continues on this path, staying informed and engaged with these developments will be essential for investors and policymakers alike.

Stay Updated & Invest with Aspero

India’s potential inclusion in global bond indices could be a game-changer, opening the floodgates for foreign investments and driving liquidity in the bond market. As these developments unfold, staying ahead of the curve is key.

At Aspero, we bring you easy access to high-yield bonds with returns of up to 15% and fixed deposits offering 9%+ returns. Don’t just watch the bond market evolve—be a part of it!